Miscellany

Posted on 06/20/2025 by chick

The Texas Sharpshooter fallacy is a common mistake in statistical reasoning. As Wikipedia explains, it “arises when a person has a large amount of data at their disposal but only focuses on a small subset of that data,” like a metaphorical “person from Texas who fires a gun at the side of a barn, then paints a shooting target centered on the tightest cluster of shots and claims to be a sharpshooter.” I find the concept fascinating. I just know there’s a good story idea lurking in there. Beyond that, it’s a good thing to know so that one can be on guard against it.
Quote from The Toll by Neal Shusterman: “A successful lie is not fueled by the liar; it is fueled by the willingness of the listener to believe. You can’t expose a lie without first shattering the will to believe it. That is why leading people to truth is so much more effective than merely telling them.”

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